Paolo Banchero stands as the favorite ROTY
Favorite pick:
Paolo Banchero/Orlando Magic (+200)
The odds won’t yield a lot of value, but there are just too many chances for Paolo Banchero, who looks ready for the NBA like a one-and-done prospect with a pretty perfect all-around offensive game and already. The type of body that can play with grown men.
For one, the Magic had a poor offense last year (29th in O-rating, 28th in TS%), probably the NBA’s most in-demand scorer.
Enter Banchero, a third-level tackler from whom he’ll get touches for a roster with zero expectations aside from Victor Wembanyama’s equity.
Jaden Ivey and Jabari Smith Jr. are unlikely to see the use of Banchero, alongside Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, respectively, who seem relatively sure to play.
We’re not a big fan of entering the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year odds market, but if we pick one of our favorites, Paul is the safest bet.
Underdog Pick:
Benedict Mathurin/Indiana Pacers (+1,200)
In Banchero’s case, the situation and ability are excellent, and the same is true for Mathurin, who may be the most valuable person on the preseason board. Mathurin is an athletic midfielder who can hit 3-pointers off the dribble and catch-and-shoot. He should be a favorite target of Tyrese Haliburton, a cerebral playmaker and Most Improved Player odds favorite, with immediate length and power.
Additionally, Mathurin has multiple avenues to gain more time and exposure. The first is a possible imminent trade for Buddy Hield, which would open up the start time. Benny could also beat the role of current fellow Canadian Chris Duarte as a higher prospect in a rebuilding team.
In either case, he should be a regular contributor by Christmas, and if all goes well this season, his ceiling could be high.
Fade out:
Keegan Murray/Sacramento Kings (+450)
We say this with a bit of reluctance because Murray looks excellent in the summer league and could be the type of offense with a high ROY turnout if fully released. It’s more like the decline of the Kings than Murray, a team that displayed such general ineptitude during Vivek Ranadive’s tenure (and indeed, in the Maloof era), with Several picks that seemed doomed.
It doesn’t help that the Kings think they should be good this year and will likely rely more on veterans to pursue the game.
Murray’s MVP race in Las Vegas made him the No. 2 pick on the Rookie of the Year odds board, drawing more value from a seemingly risky proposition.
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