Ranking NBA MVP Prospects for 2022-2023

This season, there is more parity in the NBA than ever before. Less than six games separate the ten Western Conference play-in teams. In the East, a more distinct tier of contenders is emerging, but the five significant seeds are all within five games of each other.

A tense season has also resulted in a tight MVP competition. Nikola Jokic has won the MVP award the last two years and is attempting to become the league’s first three-time winner since Larry Bird. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry are also vying for their third MVP this season while playing for opposing clubs at the bottom of the standings. Then three young superstars have firmly established themselves among the league’s best this season: Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, and Ja Morant, all of whom are 24 years old or younger and have spent the season each crafting a solid MVP case for themselves.

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As 2023 approaches, here are our picks for the top ten NBA MVP prospects for 2022-2023.

10. Los Angeles Lakers’ Anthony Davis, (C)

Davis has been unable to put together a healthy and productive season since helping the Lakers win the championship on the verge of elimination in 2020. This year, it appeared as if that would change: AD was playing some of the greatest basketball of his career into December, shifting to center, cutting out longer jump attempts, and thriving as an interior scorer and defender. Davis had fully recovered to become one of the finest players in the world when he was injured again.

A stress injury in his foot will keep him out until January, jeopardizing the Lakers’ playoff chances. Davis’ ability to be the best version of himself has always been the only thing that could genuinely save the Lakers. This season has demonstrated how vulnerable that proposition is even when he’s dominating like his former self.

9. Phoenix Suns’ Devin Booker (G)

Booker overcame accusations of ’empty calorie scoring’ by steadily developing on both ends of the floor year after year. With an aging Chris Paul and so much turmoil surrounding the Suns entering the season, Booker’s consistently excellent play has been the primary reason Phoenix has remained at the top of the Western Conference. He’s been a fantastic three-level scorer for numerous years, but this version of Booker feels entirely at ease in his skin. He has counters for every coverage and can get to his positions like a pro. It’s hard to think it’s been five years since Booker scored 70 points in a game at 26. It’s even more difficult to imagine he’s only getting better.

8. Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant (G)

Morant has developed into one of the NBA’s top players while retaining the jaw-dropping daring that has made him the league’s most exciting talent. No other player in history may possess such a unique combination of athleticism, playmaking, and individual scoring. The 23-year-old guard believes he can physically leap over any difficulty on the court, and he’s usually correct. Memphis boasts two true co-stars in Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. and plenty of depth, but Morant remains the lone star allowing the Grizzlies to dream of reaching the NBA Finals. Morant and Memphis aren’t just “next.” They’ve arrived.

7. Golden State Warriors Stephen Curry (G)

Curry is only a few months away from turning 35, and he is at a time in his career when he should be slowing down. Instead, the Warriors’ superstar appears to be as good as he has ever been. Curry added to his all-time resume with a storming run through the playoffs last season, earning his fourth ring and first Finals MVP honor. Golden State struggled to get off to a good start this season due to player turnover and locker room strife, but Curry has kept them afloat by putting up numbers comparable to his unanimous MVP season in 2016.

Curry would have been a strong contender for No. 1 on this list if it hadn’t been for a shoulder injury that will keep him out until at least the first week of January. The NBA has many new stars on the rise, but until further notice, this is still Steph’s league.

6. Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo (F)

The Greek Freak is the only player in the NBA who routinely provides a higher level of play on both sides of the floor. This season, Antetokounmpo has the highest scoring average of his career (31.2 points per game) while remaining the league’s most terrifying defender. While his scoring efficiency has fallen this season — his 58.9 percent true shooting is his lowest since his age-21 season — his battering ram mentality to hitting the basket has kept him as prolific as ever. I still believe Giannis is the best player in the world, but his shooting percentages have dropped across the board this season. If he finds another gear as the Bucks become healthy, he has a good chance of winning his third MVP award and leading Milwaukee to its second championship.

5. Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid (C)

Embiid has finished second in MVP voting each of the last two seasons, trailing Nikola Jokic, and there’s a case to be made that he’s playing at his best level yet this season. Embiid has the highest-scoring average of his career and the highest-scoring efficiency. There’s no stopping him: he’s a dominant post-scorer, a lethal mid-range shooter, and an expert at getting to the foul line and making free throws. So far this season, Embiid has one of the highest usage rates in league history, and he’s just getting more effective and efficient with his touches.

It’s impressive that Embiid can still captain the defense while carrying such a huge offensive load. Embiid’s excellent paint protection is the foundation of Philadelphia’s No. 3 overall defense. As a shot blocker, he’s one of the league’s most imposing forces near the rim, and he also possesses exceptional hands to knock the ball away from offensive players. Only Jokic had more steals per game than the other starting centers. Embiid appeared to work himself into shape at start of the season but has been a powerhouse for the Sixers ever since. His MVP case was getting stronger by the week. This year’s competition is tougher, but so is Embiid. He’s everything you could want in a franchise star.

4. Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum (F)

It’s easy to dismiss Tatum’s MVP candidacy as the most outstanding player on the best team in basketball, but it would be a disservice to the season he’s having. Tatum is averaging the most points per game (31 PPG) and scoring efficiency (61.3 percent true shooting) of his career for a Boston team with the best offense in the league. Tatum has evolved into a complete scorer: he’s a rising three-point shooter who can pull up from anywhere on the court, he’s lethal in the pick-and-roll when he gets going downhill, and he’s made significant strides in terms of drawing fouls. It’s quite tricky to match up with someone of this caliber. Matching up with someone so skilled at 6’8 is extremely difficult, and Tatum has been putting opposition opponents in that impossible bind all season.

Tatum’s career has felt like a steady rise to the league’s top. He’s only 24 years old, yet he’s already made three road trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and made it to the NBA Finals last season. While the Celtics fell two victories short of a title last season, they are even better this season, and Tatum is a key part of their success. Is Tatum the NBA’s top player? No, but he’s constantly climbing those fictitious ranks. Tatum’s superstardom will be put to the ultimate test in the playoffs when he’ll try to rebound from a dismal showing in the 2022 NBA Finals. It may not be time to crown Tatum yet, but if he continues to improve at this rate, it will be soon.

3. Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Dončić (G)

Doni is on his way to becoming one of the best players at 23. Doni has less help than any other player on this list after the Mavericks let Jalen Brunson depart in the offseason, but he’s kept Dallas afloat since no guy alive can lead an offense on his own. Doni, who stands 6’7 and weighs 230 pounds, possesses excellent ball handling abilities, long shooting range, impeccable touch, and the vision to make any pass on the floor. He easily compensates for what he lacks in top-end speed and leaping ability with sheer power, old-school craft, and the increasingly plausible notion that he can pull off any move on the court.

It’s almost impossible to believe Doni made another leap this season unless you realize how young he is. Without Brunson, Doni has the highest usage rate in the league and is generating career highs in scoring volume and efficiency. Doni has gotten more efficient with a historic workload on his shoulders, proving to be unstoppable even as every opposing defense loads up to stop him. It’s easy to call out Doni’s lack of top athleticism or three-point shooting (he’s making 35% of his threes for the third year in a row), but that only adds to his production. Doni has been compared to James Harden, but that comparison ignores that his game improves, not deteriorates, in the playoffs. He is already the most threatening individual matchup in the sport, and he’s only 23 years old. Seeing Luka is like witnessing greatness in motion. He’ll win this award one day, possibly several times, but the question is whether the Mavericks will win enough games to give him the hardware this year.

2. Brooklyn Nets’ Kevin Durant (F)

Durant’s place among the game’s all-time greats was already established well before the start of this season, but at the age of 34, he’s experiencing one of the best seasons of his historic career. KD didn’t get his wish when he asked the Nets for a trade over the summer, partly because Brooklyn didn’t get a decent enough offer for him, and he’s responded by reminding the NBA that he’s still in the running for the best player alive. Throughout the season’s first several weeks, the Nets were a shambles, with Kyrie Irving spreading anti-Semitic propaganda on social media and the organization sacking head coach Steve Nash following a 1-5 start. Since then, Brooklyn has been one of the top teams in the league, thanks entirely to Durant’s skill.

So far, Durant is scoring 30 points per game on an incredible 56 percent shooting from the field, a career-high. KD is taking or making fewer three-pointers than he used to (37 percent on 4.8 attempts per game), but he’s evolved into the best mid-range scorer. Durant is hitting 62.4 percent of his two-point attempts, primarily by shooting shots opposing defenses want to give up. They cannot stop him from creating them. KD is also shown his ability as a facilitator on a Nets team that leads the NBA in three-point percentage. Did we mention he’s also a great defender? With a new generation of superstars driving the game forward, it appeared like Durant’s time atop the NBA’s hierarchy would be finished, yet he’s still as good as anyone alive. Nets have gone from disaster to one of the top teams in East, all because of the player they refused to move this offseason.

1. Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic (C)

Even if he played like the best player in basketball once again, it would always be impossible for Nikola Jokic to earn another MVP this season. No one has won three consecutive NBA MVPs since Larry Bird in 1984-86, partly due to voters’ desire to establish new narratives by proclaiming a different champion. That appears to be happening again this season, as the source asked 100 NBA writers to cast a mid-December ballot. Only one person voted for Jokic as MVP first. Voter fatigue must be real because as the season approaches 2023, a more objective assessment, such as Basketball-MVP Reference’s Tracker, now offers Jokic a 44 percent chance of winning MVP this season for the second time.

Why should Nikola Jokic win MVP for the third time in a row? The simple response is that it’s time to recognize he’s the best basketball player alive. Jokic, a 6’11, 285-pound behemoth, combines enormous bulk and strength with possibly the best skill level of any player on the planet. He’s the best passing big man in history and one of the best passers in any position.

He’s a highly efficient scorer, averaging over 25 points per game while posting an insane 68.6 accurate shooting %. Despite his slow feet, his quick hands and razor-sharp placement make him an asset on defense. There is no way to stop Jokic because he is too large, intelligent, and good.

Jokic was named MVP a year ago after leading the Nuggets to a 48-win season despite missing his top two teammates, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. 

With both easing back into the lineup this year and an improved defensive cast surrounding him, Jokic has propelled the Nuggets to the top of the Western Conference. This is his big chance to show that he can lead a club deep into the playoffs, if not to the championship. Voters may not want to admit it, but Jokic feels like the NBA’s Most Valuable Player all over again.

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