Category: Football betting guide

What is a 1X2 bet?

1X2 betting, also known as three-way betting, refers to supporting or laying home wins, draws or away wins. We explained what the 1X2 betting market is and how to calculate your payout.

1X2 betting is very popular and is a simple way to bet on sports that may be tied. 1 means home win, X means draw, 2 means away win.

Unlike Asian handicap or total points, 1X2 betting does not seek to balance any differences in perceived quality between teams or players. They are designed to reflect the true odds of each possible outcome after subtracting the bookmaker’s margin or trading commissions.

This type of bet has other names, such as “full time result”, “match betting” or “three-way betting”.

In a regular league, if the bettor’s choice is the correct result of the game, the bet wins. However, it is worth remembering that there may be some exceptions, especially in cup competitions. In matches determined by overtime and/or penalty kicks, 1X2 betting will only be based on the result after 90 minutes. This is because if the game enters additional time and/or penalties, the tie option is no longer available.

Spread vs moneyline vs total

As a beginner bettor, one of the most confusing and challenging tasks you will face is to learn multiple types of betting odds. Unfortunately, if you want a pleasant and profitable betting experience, you have no choice but to learn how to bet on sports events, which means understanding how different odds work. However, you don’t need to master everything at once. It may be wise to stick to a few basic odds at first, then when you get the hang of it, keep working hard.

• SPREAD

When it comes to betting on sports events, spreads or simply “spreads” are one of the most common bets. This is mainly because it is designed to use odd-numbered manufacturers to install the handicap to keep the two teams on an equal playing field. The spread allows bettors to bet on the difference between the scores of the two teams. For example, if the spread is 5 and you choose the favorite to win, the team must win by 5 points to make a full push (the bettors say a tie, in which case you can get back your stake), or To win by 6 points.

In other words, when betting on spreads, you are betting on a team that can cover the betting line but not necessarily win the game. Obviously, by choosing your favorite, you believe that the team will not only win the game, but will also win the points required by the betting line. However, when betting on a weak team, that team does not have to win to cover the betting line.

A great strategy starts with knowing when to bet on the spread. You will have multiple opportunities and different ways to act on the spread of a given match. Obviously, it starts with the action before the game. The spread before the game starts will be available until the game starts. Depending on the type of sport you consult, leagues and online sports betting sites, spreads may even rise a few days before the start of the game. The beauty of online betting is that you can still bet on your spread after the game has started. Live betting will be adjusted regularly according to the game process.

• Moneyline

The win or lose bet is just a bet on which team will win. It is offered as the main betting option for baseball and hockey, but can be used as an alternative to the spread of football and basketball. Unlike spreads, there is no offer in the winning or losing set, and the odds are based only on the team’s chance of winning. Losers are classified as active losers, which means that if you bet on them to win, you will get more money. Hots are listed as negative disadvantages, which means that if you bet on them to win, you won’t get much profit.

Moneyline works very differently from other forms of betting because you have to know how much to bet in each game to win a certain amount. For example, if you want to win $100 and the odds of the game are -160, you must bet $160. In order to get better odds, you must bet on a team that is not conducive to spread. If you know how to find good loser bets, you can become a very profitable bettor.

You need a great plan to profit from winning or losing bets. When it comes to winning or losing, one of the biggest strategies used by professional bettors is to stay away from teams with high odds. When betting on a team to win or lose, it is best to establish some kind of system to follow. For example, some people just stick to a certain number and bet directly on a team with these odds or higher. Moneylines is a great way to take advantage of the odds of your favorite weak team.

• Totals (over/under)

Over/Under betting depends on the total score of the two teams in a game. The concept of this form of betting is simple. You bet on what you think the total points of a game will be. In most sports, there is no possibility of a tie or tie for this bet, which means you will win or lose your stake at the end of the game. The bet slip lists a number, usually with a decimal or a score, and you can decide whether the total number of games is higher or lower than the published number.

For example, in football, bookmakers usually set 2.5 goals as the betting line. Participants must choose more than 2.5 goals (meaning 3 or more goals) or less than 2.5 goals (meaning no Goals, 1 goal or 2 goals). The lines and terminology in each sport are slightly different. In the NBA, overtime is also included in this bet, and it is possible to push and get your bet back. Nevertheless, some bookmakers do not count the extra time, especially for European basketball games. Therefore, please make sure you read the bookmaker’s rules carefully and not jump to conclusions.

Over/Under betting is not necessarily as simple as it sounds. Before you decide to play, you need to do a lot of consideration. The Over/Under sports betting publication is based on a large number of surveys. The handicap broke the team’s defense, offense and club duel. If you compare differentOver/Under bets in several sportsbooks, you will find that they are very similar. Let the scorers try to get as close as possible to the total score and make it difficult for you to choose the winner of the bet. In order to do this, you need to do your homework. Rather than betting on every opportunity that arises, it is better to make a reasonable decision and choose the game that provides you with the clearest choice.

What pays more moneyline or spread?

The sports betting industry continues to grow in the United States, and this growth has opened up many new betting options. Despite the emergence of new betting options, traditional betting such as win-loss line and spread betting is still the most common betting method.

• Moneyline bets are Easier to Win

Moneyline is the most basic betting option in the sports betting industry. You are just betting on which team will win a certain game. For beginners, this is a good betting option because it is usually easier to pick a winner.

The disadvantage of moneyline betting is that the payout is usually very small. It may be profitable to bet on the loser to win, but this rarely happens.

Miami Heat -165
Golden State Warriors +185

The Heat are the favorites in this matchup. It would take a $165 bet to win just $100. Meanwhile, a $100 bet on the underdog Warriors would result in a payout of $185.

• Spread betting gives Better Payout

Spread betting is often referred to as “betting against the spread”. This type of betting is very popular in football and basketball games. But other sports also offer spread betting.

This bet is harder to win than a win-loss bet. However, it is also possible to get better returns. Almost all spread betting options you will find have odds of -110 on each side.

With spread betting, you try to predict how close or how far apart the final score difference will be. You can actually bet on the team that loses the game. However, they must keep the final score within a certain range.

Miami Heat -7.5
Golden State Warriors +7.5

If you are going to make a bet on the Miami Heat, then they will have to win this game by at least eight points to make this a successful wager. The Golden State Warriors can make you a winner by losing the game by seven points or less, or pulling off the upset.

Go With the Spread

If you like sports betting, then you might want to win some money. The best way to do this is to take some risks. Betting on the spread provides a better opportunity to do this.

For some sports, Moneyline betting is a better choice. Nevertheless, it is difficult to make any real money through this type of bet. If a sport has a spread betting option, it is almost always worthwhile to use that option.

Spread bets are usually your best option. But remember, you still need to make sure it suits your specific situation. Don’t always bet only on the spread, because you can use this option.

Make some win or lose bets in this industry. Ultimately, you need to research in depth and start betting on the spread to earn real money.

How to bet moneyline in football?

A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. Betting on the moneyline means you are just picking the winner of the game, with no point spread or other factors involved. Some casual bettors do not want to worry about the point spread or the over-under, they just want to pick a winner.

Since there is no point spread involved, betting on the favorite requires you to bet more to win a desired amount on the moneyline. Betting on an underdog on the moneyline will earn a larger profit.

If you are looking to play the favorite on the moneyline, Each team/person in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value for bettors to wager on and these are called odds. The numbers, or odds, are determined by oddsmakers and sportsbooks based on how the two opponents match up, and each number is displayed with a minus sign (-) or a plus sign (+) in front of it.

How Moneylines Work in Football?

Betting the moneyline for a football game is a betting on which team you want to win, No point spread involved. Whatever team you select has to win totally for a wager to be successful. In the unlikely event of a tie, your stake will be returned.

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs (Moneyline)

New England Patriots (+250)
Kansas City Chiefs (-315)

For this game, the New England Patriots are the clear favorites. The bookmakers consider them very likely to win the game, so the odds are low. The odds for the Kansas City Chiefs are high because they are not considered likely to win.

When to Bet Football Moneylines

A moneyline bet is one of the easiest kinds of bets you can make at a sportsbook. Simply put, it means betting on a specific team to win a game. While betting on a point spread is about who wins and by how much, a moneyline bet is solely about who wins.

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs (Points Spread)

New England Patriots +3 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110)

New England Patriots are three point underdogs, and a bet on them to cover is available at odds of -110. If you liked that bet, it would actually be much more logical to place a moneyline wager at odds of +130.

You are a less want to win, as there is a chance that Seattle would lose by one or two points, but there is a more than fair chance that if they did cover they would actually win the match. And, of course, if they lost by three or more then you would have lost either way.

Betting Football Moneylines’ Tips

Successful betting, on any sport, is all about finding value, so you should always look to get the best value that you can. If a moneyline wager offers the best value on a football game, then that’s the wager you should be placing. If a point spread seems the best option, then go down that route.

• Work on Your Handicapping Skills

If you don’t want to be placing your money on bets that are complete guesses, you’re going to need to develop a handicap betting strategy, and that is going to include research and analysis along the way. Find the information you need to make an informed decision, look at trusted sites and resources for additional data and, if you like, maybe use some sports betting analytics tools, as well.

The point of handicapping a game or event is to take as much of the guesswork out of the process as possible. If you’re slapping down bets on a whim, you’re not going to have sustainable luck against the sportsbooks and their oddsmakers. Put in the time and the work, and your probability of success will increase.

• Picks Your Spots

Quality and not quantity is the key to successful betting lies. Your chances of winning are much higher if you pick your spots carefully, and only bet when you find real value.

There is no big number of NFL games each week, but there is enough that it is simply not realistic to think you can handicap them all. And if you are also betting on college games then this is even more of an issue.

Be patient and selective, remember that only bet when you have right reasons to do so.

• Get the Best Odds

You are almost certainly hold up your chances of making money if you only bet with one bookmaker or betting site. At the very slightest you will missed out on getting the possible value.

New England Patriots +252 / Kansas City Chiefs -285
New England Patriots +260 / Kansas City Chiefs -290
New England Patriots +240 / Kansas City Chiefs -270
New England Patriots +245 / Kansas City Chiefs -280

There is no important difference in what was available. the best odds is that you make sure that your potential payout is always as high as it can be. Even be the difference between winning overall or losing overall this is a great over time.

What is the most profitable betting strategy?

Whether it is football, basketball, or even eSports Bettors and punters rely on their knowledge and luck of the things they bet on. However, regardless of being confident in their decision-making, they can still unsuccessful.

Betting strategies or systems work by providing bettors with instructions to follow in order to maximize earnings and lessen losses. Others work by betting less as you lose and some work by betting more when you win.

Strategy A: Bet It All

This betting strategy involves you betting your entire balance on every bet. The most advantage is that if you win, you win big. And if you lose, you lose it all.

Strategy B: Martingale System

The Martingale strategy involves doubling up on losing bets and reducing winning bets by half. It essentially a strategy that promotes a debit mentality that tries to improve the odds of breaking even, but also increases the chances of severe and quick losses.

Strategy C: Fixed Amount Betting

This strategy requires you bet a fixed amount for each bet. In this example, it is $100. With a 55% probability of winning, this method means you won’t lose your entire balance quickly. It also means any chance of winning will also be slow and steady.

Strategy D: Proportional Betting

Proportional betting systems require betting a portion of your bankroll and then increasing your bets by that same percentage after each win. For example, if you had a $1000 bankroll and bet 10%, you’d bet $100 the first time. If you won, you’d add your winnings and find 10% of your new total for the next wager.

Strategy E: Fibonacci Sequence

The Fibonacci betting strategy has been working the magic for most bettors in their betting and gambling endeavors and they have money they win from their casino gambling and sports bets to show for it. A little composite than some other variable staking plan, yes, but bettors who are able to get the basics and fundamentals of how Fibonacci strategy worksare enjoying the betting and gambling as they are able to take good care of their betting budget.

The Proportionate betting system resulted in the greatest profits, earning $19,275 after 500 bets. its clear that Proportional betting is the only system that you should use.  Keep in mind, however, that our simulation is based on the assumptions that we know both the edge and that the edge is in our favor a 55% probability of winning each bet. 

Probability of draw in football

Football teams are not reason to settle for a draw. All professional leagues award three points for a win and just one for a draw. However, this does not stop draws from being constant. How likely a draw is, modify greatly between leagues.

While draws are more common in lower leagues, they are less constant in higher leagues. The percentages of draws between the EPL and League 1, Serie A and Serie B, and Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2, shown below. The league with the most draws in 2019–2020 was the Uruguay Primera, with a huge draw percentage of 54.17%.

TOURNAMENT

EPL
League 1
Champions League
Serie A
Serie B
Greece Super League
Bundesliga
Bundesliga 2

2017-2018

26.10%
27.10%
29.90%
29.90%
35%
30.30%
26.90%
29.30%

2018-2019

18.70%
26.60%
27.40%
28.40%
32.50%
23.30%
24.40%
28.60%

2019-2020

24.20%
28.10%
24.40%
23.20%
27.30%
29.20%
23%
31.80%

How to Predict Draws (A Mathematical Approach)

Bookies use mathematical models to predict the likelihood of any possible outcome in order to calculate their odds. It includes draws, wins, losses, and specific scores. Poisson distribution and Normal Distribution are two of the most common models.

• Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution in betting is used to calculate the frequency of any occurrence in a game. It is a method that uses probability theory to predict how likely an event is. You can use it to calculate the likelihood of a specific score in football.

When bookies set their odds, it is important to know how likely any event is, based on past performance. Bookies do not simply come up with odds out of the blue. They use mathematical models. If you want to take a scientific, mathematical approach to betting, you should calculate for yourself how likely you think a specific game event, or set of events will be. That is the first step to finding value. If you have found something that is more likely to happen than what the bookies predict, that is what value is.

Poisson distribution in betting is particularly relevant for games like football, where scoring happens on an incremental scale. It helps you determine the likelihood of each possible score.

• Normal Distribution

It is a statistical model based on averages as well as how often they occur. Two teams may have the same average score, however, one team can be very consistent, while one team overperforms and underperforms frequently. By calculating the standard deviation, you can see how often, and by how much results differ from the mean. This will possibly give you a more value result.

How to use odds to predict football?

There are many ways to determine the relative strength of teams; recent form, world ranking, value of squad, past meetings, and so on. However, rather than spending huge amounts of time trying to tie all these factors into one model, bookies’ odds can be used instead, since they take all these factors into account when creating their odds. Therefore, we just need a way of converting the odds into an actual expectation.

• HOW ODDS WORK

For the opening match of the World Cup, between Brazil and Argentina, the odds for the result of the match are:

Brazil win: 3/10
Draw: 18/5
Argentina win: 9/1

So for a Brazil win, £10 placed on that result will profit by a mere £3 if that outcome comes to fruition, whereas £10 placed on Argentina to win will make a profit of £90.

If the bookies created the odds to exactly reflect the probability of that outcome,  10/(3+10) = 76.9% will be the probability of Brazil’s winning. However, they need to make a profit, so the odds are shortened slightly.

However, the odds will all have been shortened by the same proportion, such as 5%, for the bookies to try and people to bet on each result proportional to the chance of it occurring, in order to guarantee a profit. Therefore, we can still assume that the odds are a fair representation of each result, compared to the other outcomes.

• MEASURING TEAM STRENGTH

The odds currently give the lower score to the better team, however, we need values which are higher when a team is better, so in order to find those the reciprocal of each odd is found.  This is simply a case of turning the odds upside-down.

Example, Brazil’s 3/10 becomes 10/3.

If we switch the resulting values from fractions to decimal form, It will be;

Brazil win: 10/3 = 3.333
Draw: 5/18 = 0.278
Argentina win: 1/9 = 0.111
(to three decimal places)

We will call these three values the coefficients for each result.

• FINDING THE PROBABILITIES

It is very simple to translate these coefficients into the probability of each outcome happening.

To find this, we divide each value by the total of all values. So for our example, the total of the three coefficients is 3.722, and our three probabilities are:

Brazil win: 3.333/3.722 = 89.6%
Draw: 0.278/3.722 = 7.5%
Argentina win: 0.111/3.722 = 3.0%

(that the three probabilities add up to 100.1% is a result of rounding, the true probabilities add up to 100%)

• SIMULATING RESULT

We will find the winner of the match based on these probabilities. To do this we find the cumulative probability for each result:

Brazil win: 0.896
Draw: 0.896 + 0.075 = 0.970
Argentina win: 0.970 + 0.030 = 1.000

(again, rounding counts for the discrepancy in the draw calculation)

These values can now provide boundaries:

0.000 – 0.896: Brazil win
0.896 – 0.970: Draw
0.970 – 1.000: Argentina win

If we now draw a random number between 0 and 1 we can see which range it fits into, giving us our result.

Running five random simulations gives values of 0.0659 (Brazil win), 0.6236 (Brazil), 0.3970 (Brazil), 0.9752 (Argentina win), 0.0207 (Brazil). In the long run, Brazil will win 89.6% of matches, and 3% will be won by Argentina.

• SUMMARY

Bookies’ odds are in probability and statistics. However, they are weighted in order to guarantee them a profit. These can be transformed with relative ease into the actual probabilities, at least according to whatever analysis the bookies have used, of each possible outcome.

Which odds are likely to draw?

Most football fans, like to bet by following their instinct to the team they want will win. For example: Manchester fans will bet on an Manchester win, while Arsenal fans will consistently hoping a victory for their team.

That means that a bookmaker’s liability are usually stacked on either team to win. While lowering the odds on other outcomes nobody is backing a particular outcome, bookies will boost the odds on it. This means they will have to pay less in case of the other outcomes being successful.

The lack of bets can push the odds up to 5/2 or even close to 3/1, and a draw may have real odds of around 9/4.

• Separating odds

This becomes very understandable when looking at various sets of odds. a draw can be just as likely when there is a most favourite to win as when both teams are matched. This is much caused by heavy betting on the favourite, which can slip odds. This promote demonstrates the value in draw betting.

How do you win a big odds bet?

Betting on big odds with a purposeful strategy is critical. Higher prices mean fewer winning chances but also better returns. It would help if you built a plan except for the staking method you must improve.

• CONTROL YOUR STAKES

Placing risk-based picks needs absolute control of your bankroll. You should never set a stake upper 20% of your starting investment. It’s challenging to generate massive profits in a couple of big odds bets, but the most important is to have the chance to recover after the losses.

• BET ON SINGLES

It’s one of the main principles in betting; choosing fewer picks increases the chances of securing returns. So, the best option is to bet on singles, especially when you select underdogs.

• AVOID BIG ACCUMULATORS

Choose trixies or yankees or Heinz systems, where you can get a profit with the minimum selections. Betting on a trixie, you earn sustainable earnings even with two winning selections.

• PLACE VALUE BETS

High odds betting allows you to find value prices. Even the top bookmakers focus on favorites offering bigger odds on underdogs. They evaluate the winning chances so that you can take advantage of the bookies. In the long run, even a slight odds difference will be vital for your bankroll.

• BET ON THE EVENTS YOU KNOW

Big odds increase your losing risk, so you should mind the gap by betting on sports you have a deep knowledge of the rules and their betting markets.

• AVOID FUN BETS

Betting on underdogs and minimizing the stakes might be a choice made just for fun, even 10% of a regular stake. If your standard stake is €150, following our example above, you will see damage in your bankroll if you lose €5 on fun bets in the long term.

Most winning odds in football?

What many people do not realize is that successful betting is not about picking as many winners as you can. Instead, it is about finding spots where the odds are in your favor, so that you can get your money down when you have a positive expectation. To do this effectively, you MUST understand the concept of value.

• Point Spread

It is a way for oddsmakers to make a matchup between two unbalanced teams more balanced by giving points to or taking points away from each team.

The favorite in a matchup, indicated by a minus (-) sign, will have a given number of points taken away from its final score, while the underdog, known by its plus (+) sign, will have the same number of points added to its final score.

• Moneyline

A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. No catch, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer.

Each team in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value for bettors to wager on and these are called “odds.” The numbers, or odds, are determined by oddsmakers and sportsbooks based on how the two opponents match up, and each number is displayed with a minus sign (-) or a plus sign (+) in front of it.

• Over/Under

A sports betting OVER/UNDER is a bet where you have to correctly predict the combined score of both teams. You have to pick if the total score will be lower or higher than the number set by oddsmakers, the people at betting sites who set the lines and odds.

Example: Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens game with the total set at 48.5 points. As a bettor, you would select the OVER if you believe the game’s final combined score will be 49 points or more. You would select the UNDER if you believe it will be 48 points or less.

At the sportsbook, the odds would be llike this;

48.5 OVER -110
48.5 UNDER +105

• Props

a prop bet is a wager based on incident or non-incident during a sporting event. Unlike point spreads, totals or straight up wagers, these incidents may not affect the outcome of the game or even the final score. Props are considered novelty bets since they can deal with individual player or team milestones.